A Lot of Candidates for 8 Dan

[Curtis]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

[Andou]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

...Wow. 87,000 people huh? I wonder how large a place that the testing would be held in would be.

[ZtefaNNN[K]]

wasn´t it tokyo/kyoto ?

[Kenzan]

I'm looking forward to my promotion to Hachidan.
(In several lifetimes from now.)
:D

Say, didn't Kendoka_Han list himself somewhere as a "Senior Kendo Master"?
I guess that'd be Hachidan rank then.
Wow...Hachidan at 15.
Damn, he must be wicked awesome at Kendo!.
:D

[ZtefaNNN[K]]

then he knows whee the examination was held. :o

[Big One]

With the percentage of passing for Hachidan, I came up the number of
76,923 godan to become Rokkudan. Sadly, I think that number is bigger all U.S. Kendoka that include many many Kyu grade.

[Shazzanzzz]

I think the actual rate of hachidan passing is less than 1%. I think over 1200 applied and only 8 got it one year I saw the numbers for.

Which means.... if you're a rokudan, you have less than a 0.1% statistical chance of making it to hachidan... And if you're a godan... the number becomes 0.013%... Of course, a more accurate number would be from those who tested and eventually got the dan degrees.

But, just for fun, if we consider the number of hachidans in this world and population of earth... which is what <100 compared to around 6.5 billion.... A normal human being have a better statistical chance of winning the lottery than becoming a hachidan, haha.

[Shazzanzzz]

With the percentage of passing for Hachidan, I came up the number of
76,923 godan to become Rokkudan. Sadly, I think that number is bigger all U.S. Kendoka that include many many Kyu grade.

It takes 7.69 godans on average to test to get 1 6-dan.

[Neil Gendzwill]

I think the pass rates are a little higher in North America.

[Sparv]

On the former internet site of my dojo there were a page with an estimation of the total number of kendo practitionners in Japan which used the numbers of candidates to 6th, 7th and 8th dan. The result was far from the official figures... Around 800,000 instead of more than 2,000,000 (I'll try to find this page, the site has changed and this interresting part is no longer online).

[Curtis]

I think the actual rate of hachidan passing is less than 1%. I think over 1200 applied and only 8 got it one year I saw the numbers for.

Which means.... if you're a rokudan, you have less than a 0.1% statistical chance of making it to hachidan... And if you're a godan... the number becomes 0.013%... Of course, a more accurate number would be from those who tested and eventually got the dan degrees.

But, just for fun, if we consider the number of hachidans in this world and population of earth... which is what <100 compared to around 6.5 billion.... A normal human being have a better statistical chance of winning the lottery than becoming a hachidan, haha.

These are average percentages based on several tests I have read about or attended in Japan. 8 dan generally runs from .08 to 1.2%. 7 dan runs a pretty close range of 9-11%.

I would imagine at this time there are between 400-500 8 dan in Japan. You pass some, you lose some.

[hyuna]

Do you have any information about the average number of attempts before a pass, and drop-out rates?

[ben]

Another statistic that reveals the bigness and busy-ness of Japanese kendo is one that Nakata sensei gave us during the last Asian Zone Shinpan Seminar. He asked how many people shinpan in more than five comps per year. No-one put their hand up because we don't have that many in Aus. He was surprised and said that when he was his busiest at shinpaning, he was personally shinpaning 2000 matches per year! That's 40 every week!

No wonder we're behind in shinpan skills as well...

b

[Ignatz]

And what would the odds be of more than one nanadan from US passing hachidan at the same test?

Or don't we want to go there?

[Kenzan]

Ouch.
:nervous:

[Ralutin]

And what would the odds be of more than one nanadan from US passing hachidan at the same test?

Or don't we want to go there?

I'll stick my foot out...

Actually, I think the odds are good that we'll have another 7 dan from here in the U.S. pass 8 dan in Japan within the next ten years. I know of at least three or four who have been attempting the test over the last few years and they're still young enough to keep trying for many years to come.

We all know Tagawa sensei did it a couple of years ago - Miyahara sensei and Miyata sensei before him - I suppose you can count Huang sensei too, since he's here in the U.S.

Anybody wanna guess who'll be next from the U.S.? Who wants to start taking bets? ;)

[Ignatz]

I'll stick my foot out...

Actually, I think the odds are good that we'll have another 7 dan from here in the U.S. pass 8 dan in Japan within the next ten years. I know of at least three or four who have been attempting the test over the last few years and they're still young enough to keep trying for many years to come.

We all know Tagawa sensei did it a couple of years ago - Miyahara sensei and Miyata sensei before him - I suppose you can count Huang sensei too, since he's here in the U.S.

Anybody wanna guess who'll be next from the U.S.? Who wants to start taking bets? ;)

That's not what I was asking. :nervous:

[Alison2805]

Another statistic that reveals the bigness and busy-ness of Japanese kendo is one that Nakata sensei gave us during the last Asian Zone Shinpan Seminar. He asked how many people shinpan in more than five comps per year. No-one put their hand up because we don't have that many in Aus. He was surprised and said that when he was his busiest at shinpaning, he was personally shinpaning 2000 matches per year! That's 40 every week!

No wonder we're behind in shinpan skills as well...

b

No wonder our AFL umpires are so crap! They dont umpire enough!!!:D

[Curtis]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

It was pointed out to me that I have a slight error. I added an extra 10,000 which would not be the case.

The number should be 76,920. That is what happens when you are in a hurry and do not fully proof out your formulas.

It would be interesting to know about the retests and the average number of tries it takes people. I have an acquaintance that passed 7 dan last year in Tokyo on his 7th or 8th try. I know others who have tried repeatedly.

[Kingofmyrrh]

And what would the odds be of more than one nanadan from US passing hachidan at the same test?

Or don't we want to go there?

Until you're entering well over 100 candidates per year and still not getting the occasional double pass, it's a little early to get cynical, don't you think?

[Ignatz]

Until you're entering well over 100 candidates per year and still not getting the occasional double pass, it's a little early to get cynical, don't you think?

I've been cynical for at least 35 years (maybe more);)

[xvikingx]

I wonder how large a place that the testing would be held in would be.

Not very big at all. It's being held today and tomorrow in Kyoto.

[Oroshi]

The iaido hachidan gradings are being held on 3 May in Kyoto too. I have no idea what the pass rate is for those but I know that like kendo it's very low.

[Shazzanzzz]

I'll stick my foot out...

Actually, I think the odds are good that we'll have another 7 dan from here in the U.S. pass 8 dan in Japan within the next ten years. I know of at least three or four who have been attempting the test over the last few years and they're still young enough to keep trying for many years to come.

We all know Tagawa sensei did it a couple of years ago - Miyahara sensei and Miyata sensei before him - I suppose you can count Huang sensei too, since he's here in the U.S.

Anybody wanna guess who'll be next from the U.S.? Who wants to start taking bets? ;)

My bet is Kato Sensei from Shidogaikuin in the east coast. He's the most accomplished nanadan that i know of.... Past US team coach, WKC judge, etc... and still in his 50's. Maybe Kato sensei'll be able to get hachidan in iaido too.

[mark]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

I think another interesting way of looking at the issue would be to follow the cohorts over time. It would be fairly easy to estimate when we will likely have 10 hachidan, 15 hachidan.....

To do the calculations I would need rough estimates on the number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th currently in the system and rough estimates of the pass rates and quit/mortality rate.

So far we have the following:

dan number pass rate mortality
with grade to next grade
8 ? NA ?
7 ? 1% ?
6 ? 10% ?
5 ? 13% ?
4 ? ? ?
3 ? ? ?
2 ? ? ?
1 ? ? ?

[Kendoka_Han]

[FONT=Arial]10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

Why do you times 10 into 7,692 and 1000?

I am somewhat slightly confused.

Oh and yeh, i am a Hachidan, no wait...im 0-Dan....meaning i will never need a dan grade cause im just too uberly awesome. ;)

[mark]

Why do you times 10 into 7,692 and 1000?

I am somewhat slightly confused.

Oh and yeh, i am a Hachidan, no wait...im 0-Dan....meaning i will never need a dan grade cause im just too uberly awesome. ;)

The calculation produces 1 candidate. He wants to produce 10 candidates so he multiplies by 10.

[mark]

I think another interesting way of looking at the issue would be to follow the cohorts over time. It would be fairly easy to estimate when we will likely have 10 hachidan, 15 hachidan.....

To do the calculations I would need rough estimates on the number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th currently in the system and rough estimates of the pass rates and quit/mortality rate.

So far we have the following:

dan number pass rate mortality
with grade to next grade
8 ? NA ?
7 ? 1% ?
6 ? 10% ?
5 ? 13% ?
4 ? ? ?
3 ? ? ?
2 ? ? ?
1 ? ? ?

Sorry ran out of edit time the table reads

dan number with grade pass rate mortality to nxt grade

8 ................?......................NA......... ..............?
7 .................?......................1%........ ..............?
6 .................?......................10%....... ..............?
5 .................?......................13%....... ..............?
4..................?.......................?...... ..................?
3 ..................?.......................?....... .................?
2 ..................?.......................?....... .................?
1..................?.......................?...... ..................?

[Kendoka_Han]

The calculation produces 1 candidate. He wants to produce 10 candidates so he multiplies by 10.

So would there be 7,692 for 1 hachidan if it were just 1 candidate?

Did he put 10 for a theoretical output or was it 10 candidates for real?

Still confused :(

[mark]

So would there be 7,692 for 1 hachidan if it were just 1 candidate?

Did he put 10 for a theoretical output or was it 10 candidates for real?

Still confused :(

Yep! He calculated that it takes 7,692 candidates to produce 1 hachidan.

The initial question was "How many candidates does it take to create 10 hachidan". That is why he multiplied the number of candidates it takes to make 1 hachidan by 10.

[Sparv]

His figures are all right, I'll esplain it in another way:
X -> 6 13%
6-> 7 10%
7-> 8 1%

so X-> 8 0,013 %
10/0,00013 -> around 76920

That means that we need 76920 beginners to find (a lot of years later) 10 8th dan.
You said in another thread that you have been selected to become combat pilot. But you are not so good in maths (which are quite important to be a pilot): I found the calculs not very clear but understandable.

[mark]

That means that we need 76920 beginners to find (a lot of years later) 10 8th dan.
Not quite :)

76920 5th dan to make one 8th dan. And how many beginners to make a 5th dan?

[mark]

[FONT=Arial]After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan.II find these numbers quite incredible.

It is not only surprising but I also find that it is also quite important.
You recently produced a video to help dojo's who do not have a sensei (sattelite dojo) improve their teaching. If the estimates show that most cities will not have sensei for the forseable future similar programs will become extremely important if kendo is to growth and get national coverage.

[Sparv]

Not quite :)

:confused2
That's what happened when somebody try the cook-and-post-and-think-to something-else waza... I had understood 5th dan, but I wrote beginner.

[Neil Gendzwill]

And how many beginners to make a 5th dan?
Lessee... our club has been active for 26 years now and we've produced one, not counting sensei who founded the club at yondan and passed godan some time later. In another 3 or 4 years we should have a second. That's by my guess around 1200 beginners to produce 2 godan over 30 years.

For godan it's not so much pass percentages as finding someone who sticks around. Any averagely talented person can pass godan IMO if they put in the time and effort.

[Andou]

Lessee... our club has been active for 26 years now and we've produced one, not counting sensei who founded the club at yondan and passed godan some time later. In another 3 or 4 years we should have a second. That's by my guess around 1200 beginners to produce 2 godan over 30 years.

For godan it's not so much pass percentages as finding someone who sticks around. Any averagely talented person can pass godan IMO if they put in the time and effort.

Stick around, I understand. But maybe in Japan they have to stick around for less time because of the period between shinsa? (Or I guess it doesn't really matter if you still have to wait x amount of years before your eligible to be promoted again...)

How many chances of gradings do you all usually get a year (including the ones you're not eligible to take due to insufficient amounts of time in your current rank)?

[Neil Gendzwill]

How many chances of gradings do you all usually get a year (including the ones you're not eligible to take due to insufficient amounts of time in your current rank)?There are gradings in Vancouver and Toronto, but they are a week apart at the end of November so nobody would try at both in the same year. There's now a spring grading in Vancouver but that's only for ikkyu/shodan, I think. There's a grading here in Saskatoon in March, so I guess if people failed they could try again in Vancouver or vice-versa, but nobody does. If you fail a dan, it's not usually something you can fix in less than a year anyways.

[jmarsten]

I think the pass rates are a little higher in North America.
Actually in the US they are probably less. It is hard to say because the testing is such a small sample.
This last test, 2 of 18 passed 5 Dan, 2 of 6 passed 6 Dan and 2 of 6 passed 7 Dan. However the test in April none passed 6 or 7 and the passes this time in November for 6 and 7 had multiple tests before success. One of the 7 Dan has tested at least 10 or more times both in US and Japan. Same with one of the 6th Dan that passed, he also had multiple tests in both US and Japan.
If I remember remotely correctly on the test before this past one in November the pass for 5th Dan was 4 of 24 or somewhere in that area. So the pass ratio is actually less than Japan on 5th and 6th. 7th is a completely different situation because the pool is so irregular. Worst case I can remember was two candidates. One was about 39 and the other 75 or so. Makes it very difficult for either to do well.

[Andou]

There are gradings in Vancouver and Toronto, but they are a week apart at the end of November so nobody would try at both in the same year. There's now a spring grading in Vancouver but that's only for ikkyu/shodan, I think. There's a grading here in Saskatoon in March, so I guess if people failed they could try again in Vancouver or vice-versa, but nobody does. If you fail a dan, it's not usually something you can fix in less than a year anyways.

Hmmm. I seem to remember my dad talking about the "Shodan Shikkai" (sp?) in which the only people who even attended were ikkyus ready to be tested. Is that just because there are more people training in Japan in general...? How many people attend the Vancouver ikkyu/shodan testing up there?

[Neil Gendzwill]

How many people attend the Vancouver ikkyu/shodan testing up there?I haven't been to the spring one. In the fall there's usually around 50 candidates between ikkyu and shodan. At our grading in Saskatoon there's usually 20-30 candidates between all ranks (we only do up to sandan).

[mark]

I haven't been to the spring one. In the fall there's usually around 50 candidates between ikkyu and shodan. At our grading in Saskatoon there's usually 20-30 candidates between all ranks (we only do up to sandan).
It is about the same in eastern Canada (Toronto 60 in the fall, 20 in the spring in Quebec city (up to sandan)).

[j.noh]

Koike sensei is testing as well from NW Dojo. Past Team USA coach and advanced to the second round last time he tested. I'm rooting for him to pass this time.

[Curtis]

The reason I used a figure of 10 is because that seems to be the average for most tests. I have seen a range of 6 to 15 passing. Candidates can range from around 1000 to 1500 at any given test for 8 dan.

So if you need 76,920 just to make it to 5 dan, think of the huge number you need just to get to there.

Watching the the test is an amazing thing to see as they run 100's through the test. 8 courts running for the most part nonstop.

[Masahiro]

as far as i know, passing the hachidan test (which is now dubbed "kendo's most grueling challenge) is not just about competence with a sword, i want to say in a sense it's also about if one has paied their dues, such as given back to the community of kendo and that in itself i think is the greatest challenge of all. To have learned something, (much like acquiring money, or materialistic goods) and to give it all back someday. ..passing on the knowledge. Although i wonder, if the younger candidates (say between 43 and 55) have a better rate/shot/chance at passing than the older candidates. Age does pose a hinderance i think, at least on physical ability.

[mark]

as far as i know, passing the hachidan test (which is now dubbed "kendo's most grueling challenge) is not just about competence with a sword, i want to say in a sense it's also about if one has paied their dues, such as given back to the community of kendo and that in itself i think is the greatest challenge of all. To have learned something, (much like acquiring money, or materialistic goods) and to give it all back someday. ..passing on the knowledge. Although i wonder, if the younger candidates (say between 43 and 55) have a better rate/shot/chance at passing than the older candidates. Age does pose a hinderance i think, at least on physical ability.

I suspect you don't have to guess and that they have the stats on the average age of those that pass, the number of times they tried and so on and so forth.

[Kingofmyrrh]

as far as i know, passing the hachidan test (which is now dubbed "kendo's most grueling challenge) is not just about competence with a sword, i want to say in a sense it's also about if one has paied their dues, such as given back to the community of kendo and that in itself i think is the greatest challenge of all. To have learned something, (much like acquiring money, or materialistic goods) and to give it all back someday. ..passing on the knowledge. Although i wonder, if the younger candidates (say between 43 and 55) have a better rate/shot/chance at passing than the older candidates. Age does pose a hinderance i think, at least on physical ability.


I'm not sure this is quite true - if it were then candidates would wear zekken so that their skill and name/contribution could be used as judging criteria. However they just have letter and number designations. Shogo ranks describe the kind of thing you're talking about (although Ignatz might say they're just cash cows for the ZNKR, and I might be tempted to agree).

[Kenshi]

There are 2 hachidan gradings a year in Japan - Tokyo and Kyoto.

The exact numbers of practising kenshi in Japan is unknown I think... although there is a number posted on the ZNKR website. I say unknown, because most people dont join any federation, just their dojo, so I cant see how precise numbers can be derived. People join when they grade. Guestimates have been given. In amongst this large number, I suspect, the vast majority of people are kids.

As Masahiro points out, maybe its "more" than just the physical thing. As ive said before, I wouldnt be suprised if its all pre-decided. Kings take on it is the norm I think.

If the ZNKR promoted loads of 8dans what they are doing is also decentralising their authority to a certain extent too. It does them well to fail the majority. It also helps them produce funds...... and the ZNKR seems to be rich due to this (passing would raise more funds, but a failing a few times is a good source of revenue too).

[Badtz-Maru]

The statistics for the Hachidan Test are brutal. Amazing when you see them in numbers though. I'll be happy to just set foot on the testing grounds someday.

I am going to agree with Marsten Sensei concerning North American pass rates since I am in the unique situation of having tested in both Canada and the US. I tested for Shodan and Yondan in Montreal at the Canadian Championships and for Nidan and Sandan in Toronto. I tested for Godan in Las Vegas at the AUSKF summercamp. The pass rates for Godan and up in the US are simply brutal compared to the Toronto grading.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that a Canadian rank is worth any less. Four of my ranks are CKF ranks and I did fine at the AUSKF grading. However, the biggest difference is that the AUSKF panel is not messing around. They watch you like hawks and will deduct points for even the smallest mistake (like too many steps to the line or a poorly worn Gi).

Sorry I got off topic.

In the US, there are many great Nanadan who might have a shot at Hachidan. I am rooting for someone who is trained completely in the US or Canada. That could be a long way off, but Team USA defeated Team Japan, so that could come sooner than we think. Go for it Stroud Sensei and Marsten Sensei.

[ben]

Yes, a gaijin hachidan is not the unreachable dream that it once was. Once, not so long ago, godan seemed beyond the reach of most.

I agree that there are huge political implications as to whether you pass a lot of hachidans or not. In order for the grade to retain its value, it has to stay rare. Hachidan has no intrinsic value, only an ascribed or constructed value, which to a large extent is decided by the grading policies and norms of the AJKF and it's assessors. I met a Japanese kyu-dan in Shodo once. She was 18 years old.

There's a separate issue here about grading procedures that I will start a new thread about.

b

[Andou]

I haven't been to the spring one. In the fall there's usually around 50 candidates between ikkyu and shodan. At our grading in Saskatoon there's usually 20-30 candidates between all ranks (we only do up to sandan).

Jeez. I don't even know if there were 50 people that tested at the last Detroit tournament. There was even a group from Iowa there. There seemed to be a good amount of people--just not a lot of people testing.

I wonder if people feel more comfortable testing in their own organization as aside from an AUSKF sponsored one? (I think the Detroit tournament was just affiliated with the AUSKF as opposed to any of the smaller divisions, but I might be wrong). Anyone know?

[Neil Gendzwill]

[snip]Although i wonder, if the younger candidates (say between 43 and 55) have a better rate/shot/chance at passing than the older candidates. Age does pose a hinderance i think, at least on physical ability.I don't have any statistics, but I'm told that after 60 the chances start to go down. Assuming you got to nanadan in minimum time, there's about a 15 year window when you are eligible for the test and still physically strong enough to execute the way you have to. Because regardless of any political stuff happening behind the scenes, you still have to walk the walk for that test.

I'm not sure this is quite true - if it were then candidates would wear zekken so that their skill and name/contribution could be used as judging criteria.Don't kid yourself. They know who you are.

[Kingofmyrrh]

Don't kid yourself. They know who you are.

I'm more than aware of that. However, the removal of the zekken is a statement about the judging criteria of the test - they are judging A-001 for the time he/she spends on court, and not the guy who may do keiko elsewhere at other times. If individual judges choose to bring their own prejudices with them then so be it, but that's not how it's meant to be.

[The great I AM]

For those that are interested (and can read Japanese) the results I believe are now up on the ZNKR website. No kokusai passes this year.

[Curtis]

Having witnessed several 8 dan tests I have observed several things about it.

The judges in most cases have probably never seen or met the people testing. The candidates come from all over Japan. For many, access is limited to practice with most of the 8 dan. They may get to practice with them at a seminar or such. The chance that the 8 dan will remember you out of the hundreds they practice with over time is small I think. At the test if you wear a hakama with your name on it they tape over it.

I am surprised to hear from the many people I meet how little access they have to the 8 dan. When I tell them how many 8 dan I have had the chance to meet they are very surprised. I have been afforded a great many chances over the years.

I know many 7 dan that have the physical skills equal to those the 8 dan display. But the test is about being able to apply those skills flawlessly against the opponent. You must show that you have the complete understanding of how to read and manipulate your opponent.

The old system that had many cases of the good ole boy is gone. I have heard of behind the scenes maneuvers to get you rank in the far past. The AJKF cleaned it up.

Another thing I found was that just because you passed 8 dan does not mean you will be sitting on that board anytime soon or ever. They are selected carefully.

These are my opinions and observations over the years and maybe some of you have things to add.

[j.noh]

Any idea how many passed?

[Oroshi]

Any idea how many passed?

16 people passed. I'd like to transcribe their names but as is so often the case there are multiple readings for each and I'm not familiar with the sensei who took the grading. I'll give the surnames a go though:

Osawa, Nishimura, Yamamura, Hayashi, Ueno, Uesato, Uegaki, Okochi, Onda, Yamamoto, Uchihama, Kondo, Imahama, Miyoshi, Takadera and Ogata senseis - I think.

[Curtis]

16 people passed. I'd like to transcribe their names but as is so often the case there are multiple readings for each and I'm not familiar with the sensei who took the grading. I'll give the surnames a go though:

Osawa, Nishimura, Yamamura, Hayashi, Ueno, Uesato, Uegaki, Okochi, Onda, Yamamoto, Uchihama, Kondo, Imahama, Miyoshi, Takadera and Ogata senseis - I think.

The link:

http://www.kendo.or.jp/competition/judgment/2007_haru-kyoto-kendo8.html#0502

[Masahiro]

so, what do people do after getting hachidan? (yes, i know they give seminars, sit on the judging comittee, and etc) but in terms of training ...who's to say that maybe they still have more to learn?

[The great I AM]

so, what do people do after getting hachidan? (yes, i know they give seminars, sit on the judging comittee, and etc) but in terms of training ...who's to say that maybe they still have more to learn?I think you could call it "give back".

If I am one of the few who makes this pinnacle, not only would there still be hanshi to aim for, but I'm totally sure that I would still have goals within my own kendo to achieve, regardless of where my grade sits. I've so far loved every minute of teaching at UCL, so for me, teaching would play a huge roll. Who and where, though, who knows!

[Neil Gendzwill]

Having witnessed several 8 dan tests I have observed several things about it.[snip reality check]
Thanks, Marsten-sensei. Of course with the huge numbers in Japan it would be different than here.

[Curtis]

Thanks, Marsten-sensei. Of course with the huge numbers in Japan it would be different than here.

The sheer scale of it is daunting. The first time I saw it I think I uttered an expletive under my breath (pertaining to religious dung). I took sandan in Japan and it was nothing compared to this.

I went to an exam for sandan and below in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo in November and it was about the same as our shinsa. Maybe 100 or so people. What surprised me was the level of kendo they were awarding 2 dan and 3 dan. Most would have been kyu at our promo, but I should not have been surprised as I have seen this over the years. I just tend to forget.

[R Stroud]

so, what do people do after getting hachidan?

Well, at Noma Dojo they get to move from the student side to the sensei side.

[Curtis]

Well, at Noma Dojo they get to move from the student side to the sensei side.

Well, not for long. Too bad about the dojo.

I think the Kyoto Butokuden was the same, 8 & 9 dan. No 7's on the teachers side.

[R Stroud]

The official news is that the new dojo will be completed in October or November of this year, and the old dojo will be closed most likely in August. The decision about what to do with it appears to still be up in the air or perhaps they are not ready to announce anything.

I still hold out hope it will be rebuilt somewhere but no one seems to offer that as a possibility.

[Curtis]

The official news is that the new dojo will be completed in October or November of this year, and the old dojo will be closed most likely in August. The decision about what to do with it appears to still be up in the air or perhaps they are not ready to announce anything.

I still hold out hope it will be rebuilt somewhere but no one seems to offer that as a possibility.

Where is the new one?

I wonder how many from Noma dojo have become 8 dan or higher?

[Curtis]

So for this year's Kyoto test there were 1340 testing for 8 dan, 16 passing for an overall 1.2%. They were slightly generous.

I had to laugh when Ota sensei showed me his notes and had marked 13 or 16 from his court and laughed about being easy. I am sure this was for the first round only.

[vyung]

So for this year's Kyoto test there were 1340 testing for 8 dan, 16 passing for an overall 1.2%. They were slightly generous.

I just heard that one of the successful 8 Dan was 80 years old - the oldest to pass. The previous record was something like 68 years old. Big congratulations for this amazing achievement.

[mark]

I just heard that one of the successful 8 Dan was 80 years old - the oldest to pass. The previous record was something like 68 years old. Big congratulations for this amazing achievement.

It gives us old farts an inkling of a glimmer of a potential ray of hope :)

[Neil Gendzwill]

Actually there was a 72 or 73 year old who passed last year or the year before, and everyone thought that was amazing.

[mark]

Actually there was a 72 or 73 year old who passed last year or the year before, and everyone thought that was amazing.
Just another example of how all the hormones and preservatives stuffed into our food is changing our lives.

[Ignatz]

Taking advantage of the over 60 rule, and assuming that I can pass all tests on the first try, the earliest that I could test for hachidan would be when I am 74.




no problemo.

[Andou]

Taking advantage of the over 60 rule, and assuming that I can pass all tests on the first try, the earliest that I could test for hachidan would be when I am 74.




no problemo.


...I then noticed one of your quotes is from Keith Richards :D

[mark]

Taking advantage of the over 60 rule, and assuming that I can pass all tests on the first try, the earliest that I could test for hachidan would be when I am 74.no problemo.

What over 60 rule?

[Curtis]

What over 60 rule?

Japan has different rules than everyone else. When you reach 60 the waiting time is reduced. I would have to get out my Japan shinsa rule book and see what it is.

[Neil Gendzwill]

Taking advantage of the over 60 rule, and assuming that I can pass all tests on the first try, the earliest that I could test for hachidan would be when I am 74.My kid has every confidence that I will eventually pass that exam. Ain't unconditional love grand?

[Theodore]

Japan has different rules than everyone else. When you reach 60 the waiting time is reduced. I would have to get out my Japan shinsa rule book and see what it is.

Special rules for geezers? Cool, especially since I will be one in 2 months. ;)

[Ignatz]

Japan has different rules than everyone else. When you reach 60 the waiting time is reduced. I would have to get out my Japan shinsa rule book and see what it is.

I had a conversation with Murakami Sensei this winter about this and, according to him AUSKF vice-president for promotions, this is also the rule in the U.S. It was passed some time ago but never went into the rule book. Sensei is working dilligently to get everything up to snuff (and still has time to smash me over the head about my debana kote)

At 60 the waiting period is halved. But check with Sensei to be sure I am reporting correctly.

[Curtis]

I had a conversation with Murakami Sensei this winter about this and, according to him AUSKF vice-president for promotions, this is also the rule in the U.S. It was passed some time ago but never went into the rule book. Sensei is working dilligently to get everything up to snuff (and still has time to smash me over the head about my debana kote)

At 60 the waiting period is halved. But check with Sensei to be sure I am reporting correctly.

I just received some updates so I will have to sit down and look through them. I know some time back that this had been a topic of discuusion.

[Ignatz]

I'm counting on it boss, my clock is ticking away.;)

[Curtis]

I just heard that one of the successful 8 Dan was 80 years old - the oldest to pass. The previous record was something like 68 years old. Big congratulations for this amazing achievement.

In 2004 I was in Tokyo and one of my friends tested for 6 dan. She said there was an 80 yo at the test that passed 6 dan. She decribed his men as sounding like katonk.

[Paikea]

My kid has every confidence that I will eventually pass that exam. Ain't unconditional love grand?Mine is constantly suprised that I come home from keiko unaided...

[Ignatz]

I went to see "The Aviator" with mine and as the lights came up, he turned and looked at me and said, "You get like that and I'm putting you down"

I said, "What, me?"

[Curtis]

My kid has every confidence that I will eventually pass that exam. Ain't unconditional love grand?

Are you familiar with Asai sensei in SoCal? He started kendo at age 50 and passed 7 dan in his late 70's after a few tries (I am not sure how many). He is quite a character, makes me laugh everytime I talk to him.

[joekc6nlx]

Have the 8th dan results been posted anywhere? I'm hoping that Ariga-sensei made it this time.

Thanks,

[Neil Gendzwill]

Yes and sorry, no. Look upthread.

[Theodore]

Are you familiar with Asai sensei in SoCal? He started kendo at age 50 and passed 7 dan in his late 70's after a few tries (I am not sure how many). He is quite a character, makes me laugh everytime I talk to him.

Sensei, he is indeed a character. Just ask my wife next time we see you.

[Gessho]

Mine is constantly suprised that I come home from keiko unaided...

My wife expects my iminent demise every time I go to practice. Makes me suspicious....

[Paikea]

My wife expects my iminent demise every time I go to practice. Makes me suspicious....Check those letters from AAA she's getting. Maybe you're worth more in a pine box than you think?

[Gessho]

Check those letters from AAA she's getting. Maybe you're worth more in a pine box than you think?

Sometimes I think so! LOL.

[joekc6nlx]

Yes and sorry, no. Look upthread.

Sorry, Neil. I had whisked through the thread without seeing the list.

"Must pay closer attention.......":glasses:

[Andoru]

Are you familiar with Asai sensei in SoCal? He started kendo at age 50 and passed 7 dan in his late 70's after a few tries (I am not sure how many). He is quite a character, makes me laugh everytime I talk to him.

Wow that's impressive!

[b8amack]

I can't help but think a decimal was missed someplace. 1% of 10,000 is 100, not ten.

[Curtis]

I can't help but think a decimal was missed someplace. 1% of 10,000 is 100, not ten.

I see you edited, too late I got the original post. Of course there was an error. Read the whole thread.

[Raffa]

Here is the complete data requested somewhere in this post. I copyed them somewhere in this forum but i can't remeber where, hope that the original author will forgive me, i do it for the cause....

剣道段位・称号登録者数　　(平成15年1月現在)
(kendo grades, Jan heisei 19-AD 2003)

初段　634,678 (shodan)
二段　385,890 (nidan)
三段　162,061 (sandan)
四段　41,463 (yondan)
五段　38,573 (godan)
六段　14,011 (rokudan)
七段　11,877 (hachidan)
八段　466 (nanadan) (about 30 woman)
九段　13　(kyū-dan 9° Dan) only 4 siano active: Inoue sensei, Okuzono sensei, Taniguchi sensei e Kurasawa sensei.
全国登録計　1,288,033 (All Japan Total) (women 28%)

称号 Shogo
錬士　19,258 (Renshi)
教士　18,000 (Kyoshi)
範士　376 (Hanshi)

P.S. There had been only five 10° dan in kendo history. From 1995 the grades 9° and 10° cannot be awarded....

For comparison it would be interesting to have similar data regarding the korean federation.

[Legionario]

七段　11,877 (hachidan)
八段　466 (nanadan)
Swap the translations between the parenthesis:

七段　11,877 (nanadan)
八段　466 (hachidan)

:wink:

[Raffa]

Swap the translations between the parenthesis:

七段　11,877 (nanadan)
八段　466 (hachidan)

:wink:

Oooops...ehmm..
Revised!
Here is the complete data requested somewhere in this post. I copyed them somewhere in this forum but i can't remeber where, hope that the original author will forgive me, i do it for the cause....

剣道段位・称号登録者数　　(平成15年1月現在)
(kendo grades, Jan heisei 19-AD 2003)

初段　634,678 (shodan)
二段　385,890 (nidan)
三段　162,061 (sandan)
四段　41,463 (yondan)
五段　38,573 (godan)
六段　14,011 (rokudan)
七段　11,877 (nanadan)
八段　466 (hachidan) (about 30 woman)
九段　13　(kyū-dan-9° Dan) only 4 still active: Inoue sensei, Okuzono sensei, Taniguchi sensei e Kurasawa sensei.
全国登録計　1,288,033 (All Japan Total) (women 28%)

称号 Shogo
錬士　19,258 (Renshi)
教士　18,000 (Kyoshi)
範士　376 (Hanshi)

P.S. There had been only five 10° dan in kendo history. From 1995 the grades 9° and 10° cannot be awarded....

P.P.S. The total 9°dan ever awarded seems to be about twenty...

For comparison it would be interesting to have similar data regarding the korean federation. Nobody know if 8° dan korean shinsa are significantly different from the japaneese one?

[Usagi San]

八段　466 (hachidan) (about 30 woman)?????

Seriously? I didn't know there were any women hachidan... or is it nanadan?

[Raffa]

八段　466 (hachidan) (about 30 woman)?????

Seriously? I didn't know there were any women hachidan... or is it nanadan?
I can't find nomore the source of these informations (i try but the link i had was wrong), but i remember i copyed the dan numbers among other data such as shinsa success ratio ecc, it was a very complete web page,i don't think these data were unreliable. Obviously if someone have evidence of the contrary or have more updated statistics is welcome to post....

For the women hachidan number, logic would say that, if women kendoka are about 1/4 of the total, and if kendo permits a substantial parity between male and female kenshi, then female hachidan would be 1/4 of the total. Instead they are about 6% and this is a problem that i can recognise, but that i think i'am not qualified or able to deal to.

But giving a look to the data above, with a superficial analisys i see three steps.
The first one is between sandan and yondan, the ratio is about 1/4.
Then it seems those who can became yondan with time became godan too (93%).
The second step is between godan and rokudan, the ratio is nearly 1/3, but again, the majority of the ones who could became rokudan also in time pass nanadan (84%).
In end the last step-Hachidan-where no words are required......

[Kenshi]

Seriously? I didn't know there were any women hachidan... or is it nanadan?

I think he made a copying error - you are correct. There are no female 8dans at the moment, but there are a handful of 7dans.

[JByrd]

But giving a look to the data above, with a superficial analisys i see three steps.
The first one is between sandan and yondan, the ratio is about 1/4.
Then it seems those who can became yondan with time became godan too (93%).

That effect, I think, is due to the fact that rokudan is the first rank tested at the national level in Japan. Rokudan is harder to get, so people get stacked up at godan.


The second step is between godan and rokudan, the ratio is nearly 1/3, but again, the majority of the ones who could became rokudan also in time pass nanadan (84%).
In end the last step-Hachidan-where no words are required......

Again, compression at the rank below the one that is much harder to get.

[Kent Enfield]

That effect, I think, is due to the fact that rokudan is the first rank tested at the national level in Japan. Rokudan is harder to get, so people get stacked up at godan.I'm not sure if the change from local to prefectural to national level is what causes it. I think it's that sandan to yondan and godan to rokudan mark the changes from kids' kendo to adult kendo and from adult kendo to instructor level.

[Raffa]

I think he made a copying error - you are correct. There are no female 8dans at the moment, but there are a handful of 7dans.

I search again for the original link but i had no luck....
So, it seems that i was wrong, and then surely the number of 30 refer to nanadan. Thanks for signaling the error.
It's a pity that there are no female hachidan, for me even the number of 30 was too small...maybe is a question of age (i mean,maybe mass female kendo begun about 40 years ago and that is the time required to have some hachidan--it's an hypothesis, with more or less casual numbers), or maybe, despite all the statements such as "kendo have no age, size or sex", is still a sexist discipline....

[JSchmidt]

or maybe, despite all the statements such as "kendo have no age, size or sex", is still a sexist discipline....

Or maybe, it's more a reflection of the society in which it takes place. Blaming kendo itself is a little unfair.

[JByrd]

I'm not sure if the change from local to prefectural to national level is what causes it. I think it's that sandan to yondan and godan to rokudan mark the changes from kids' kendo to adult kendo and from adult kendo to instructor level.

Interesting, thanks. That got me thinking of some other possible social factors. For example, a transition from high school to college, or college to the working world, could take a lot of people out of Kendo, leaving people in certain ranks, and inflating those numbers.

[JByrd]

I think he made a copying error - you are correct. There are no female 8dans at the moment, but there are a handful of 7dans.

I have footage of my wife having a keiko with one of those amazing 7 dan women. For that, I must thank the sensei who pounded my elbow with a missed dou strike. He took me out of action for the rest of the day, and gave me an opportunity to shoot video. :happy:

[The great I AM]

I search again for the original link but i had no luck....
So, it seems that i was wrong, and then surely the number of 30 refer to nanadan. Thanks for signaling the error.
It's a pity that there are no female hachidan, for me even the number of 30 was too small...maybe is a question of age (i mean,maybe mass female kendo begun about 40 years ago and that is the time required to have some hachidan--it's an hypothesis, with more or less casual numbers), or maybe, despite all the statements such as "kendo have no age, size or sex", is still a sexist discipline....Actually, I spoke with a woman last year who said that gradings have become tougher for women because a year previous a grading panel had passed for 7th dan unanimously a woman (who I actually know....) who was clearly not at the level, and got totally balled out by their seniors for it. So up until this point there was at least an underlying opinion that women were, up to a point, having it slightly easier. This is of course all just opinion and hearsay, but on the face of it and looking at women's grades from the people I've practised with the levels vary just as wildly as they do with men, but stand out more because the numbers of women practising are less.

No solid figures or reference, just chats and personal experience I'm afraid, so don't ask me to back it up! But like I said, I do know the woman in question who was passed for 7th dan....And I'll also say that I've practised with both sides of the coin, the useless ones and the ninjas, two of whom I'd actually put near the top of the "strongest people I've practised with" list.

[b8amack]

I see you edited, too late I got the original post. Of course there was an error. Read the whole thread.

I edited because I made a mistake. That's a good thing. You should consider it... And why would I need to read 8 pages to comment on one post?

[Cutie_honey]

And why would I need to read 8 pages to comment on one post?

Plenty of reasons.
Clarifications on the original post, or maybe eo that you don't take things out of context perhaps.

The original error was fixed a few posts later. If you read on, you would have seen this.

[b8amack]

So he can't edit his post?

[Neil Gendzwill]

There's a time limit on the edit feature. Also, it's just generally good netiquette to read the entire thread or at least enough of it to get good context for what is being discussed.

[Cutie_honey]

So he can't edit his post?

only within the first few minutes after it was posted.

[b8amack]

Ah, I didn't know that about the edit feature. My bad.

However, I will say a couple of things.

1) It is also poor etiquette to bandwagon a new poster, who makes a relatively non-judgemental post. Read my original post. Relatively harmless, wasn't it?

2) It's a whole page before Curtis "corrects" his error, and when he does, he does it incorrectly.




My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.



It was pointed out to me that I have a slight error. I added an extra 10,000 which would not be the case.

The number should be 76,920. That is what happens when you are in a hurry and do not fully proof out your formulas.

Now, I'm not a math major, but it looks to me like Curtis was told he made an error, and then went and replaced his original number with the exact same number.

Maybe I'm just confused by what he meant? Because Sparv, on page 3 says



His figures are all right, I'll esplain it in another way:
X -> 6 13%
6-> 7 10%
7-> 8 1%

so X-> 8 0,013 %
10/0,00013 -> around 76920

That means that we need 76920 beginners to find (a lot of years later) 10 8th dan.
You said in another thread that you have been selected to become combat pilot. But you are not so good in maths (which are quite important to be a pilot): I found the calculs not very clear but understandable.

Beginners. Yet as far as I can understand Curtis' OP, the 76k refers to 5th dans, not first dans (to take true beginners, without any kyu, seems unlikely, but it should be certain that 5th dans are hardly beginners). With winnowing, those are two very different numbers. By page four, the original (specious) numbers seem to have been accepted.

So was I really out of line to ask about the math?

[Neil Gendzwill]

1) It is also poor etiquette to bandwagon a new poster, who makes a relatively non-judgemental post. Read my original post. Relatively harmless, wasn't it?I wouldn't call this "bandwagoning". I do think you're getting all wound up over a minor thing.

Now, I'm not a math major, but it looks to me like Curtis was told he made an error, and then went and replaced his original number with the exact same number. He originally calculated that it would take 76,920 godan to get the 10,000 rokudan to get the 1,000 nanadan need to produce 100 hachidan. His mistake was adding the godan and rokudan figures together to get 86,920 - really you start with 76,920 godan to end up with 100 hachidan.

But if we're going to get all pedantic about the numbers here then we need to consider the fact that not everybody passes on the first try. Just for grins, lets allow 3 chances to pass each rank. If it takes any more tries than that, assume that rank is not happening for that person.

The formula is then:

X*P + (X-X*P)*P + (X-(X-X*P)*P)*P = N

Where N is the target number of people at the given dan level and X is the starting number

Simplifying yields:

3X*P - 2X*P^2 + X*P^3 = N

So for a 1% annual pass rate and 100 hachidan, we need 3,311 nanadan. At a 10% pass rate, that makes 11,783 rokudan. At a 13% pass rate, that makes 32,786 godan.

[Toecutter]

The formula is then:

X*P + (X-X*P)*P + (X-(X-X*P)*P)*P = N

Where N is the target number of people at the given dan level and X is the starting number

Simplifying yields:

3X*P - 2X*P^2 + X*P^3 = N

Are you an engineer by chance?

[Neil Gendzwill]

Are you an engineer by chance?Yeah, but my math is really rusty otherwise I'd have come up with a nice formula for any number of attempts at the grade. I'm mostly a code-monkey these days.

But thinking about it a little more, the lower terms disappear pretty quickly so we can drop them and yield:

X = N/(T*P-((T-1)*P^2))

Where T is the number of tries we allow, N is the target number, P is the pass rate and X is the starting number of people.

[Curtis]

Ah, I didn't know that about the edit feature. My bad.

However, I will say a couple of things.

1) It is also poor etiquette to bandwagon a new poster, who makes a relatively non-judgemental post. Read my original post. Relatively harmless, wasn't it?

2) It's a whole page before Curtis "corrects" his error, and when he does, he does it incorrectly.





Now, I'm not a math major, but it looks to me like Curtis was told he made an error, and then went and replaced his original number with the exact same number.

Maybe I'm just confused by what he meant? Because Sparv, on page 3 says



Beginners. Yet as far as I can understand Curtis' OP, the 76k refers to 5th dans, not first dans (to take true beginners, without any kyu, seems unlikely, but it should be certain that 5th dans are hardly beginners). With winnowing, those are two very different numbers. By page four, the original (specious) numbers seem to have been accepted.

So was I really out of line to ask about the math?

No, not about the math, but your edited post was just plain rude. I have no problem with the math mistake, I was in a hurry.

Bottom line is it is a big number, that was the point.

[b8amack]

You confused me with the formula (again, not making any pretension to being a math guy) but 33k sounds a lot more realistic than 76k, or less if more tries are allowed.

[Curtis]

I wouldn't call this "bandwagoning". I do think you're getting all wound up over a minor thing.
He originally calculated that it would take 76,920 godan to get the 10,000 rokudan to get the 1,000 nanadan need to produce 100 hachidan. His mistake was adding the godan and rokudan figures together to get 86,920 - really you start with 76,920 godan to end up with 100 hachidan.

But if we're going to get all pedantic about the numbers here then we need to consider the fact that not everybody passes on the first try. Just for grins, lets allow 3 chances to pass each rank. If it takes any more tries than that, assume that rank is not happening for that person.

The formula is then:

X*P + (X-X*P)*P + (X-(X-X*P)*P)*P = N

Where N is the target number of people at the given dan level and X is the starting number

Simplifying yields:

3X*P - 2X*P^2 + X*P^3 = N

So for a 1% annual pass rate and 100 hachidan, we need 3,311 nanadan. At a 10% pass rate, that makes 11,783 rokudan. At a 13% pass rate, that makes 32,786 godan.

We can do it that way of course, but what about those that never pass or stop kendo for any number of reasons? I think to get the true number is nearly impossible. I believe the real number lies somewhere in between.

[b8amack]

I wouldn't call this "bandwagoning". I do think you're getting all wound up over a minor thing.

The thing is, I'm not wound up. I'm just already getting red repped for what I think is a pretty harmless question. The OP confused me. It's "belligerent" to ask questions, apparently...

As for my original post being rude or not, I really can't remember it well (I was probably all hopped up on caffeine; such are the perils of posting at work) but if it offended you, Curtis, then I am sorry. And I did edit it pretty much right away.

[Curtis]

The thing is, I'm not wound up. I'm just already getting red repped for what I think is a pretty harmless question. The OP confused me. It's "belligerent" to ask questions, apparently...

As for my original post being rude or not, I really can't remember it well (I was probably all hopped up on caffeine; such are the perils of posting at work) but if it offended you, Curtis, then I am sorry. And I did edit it pretty much right away.

Thanks, lesson learned I think. You may edit, but the forum is faster at sending the original post. I always try to pause before I push the button. Otherwise I know I will say something I will regret.

[Neil Gendzwill]

We can do it that way of course, but what about those that never pass or stop kendo for any number of reasons? I think to get the true number is nearly impossible. I believe the real number lies somewhere in between.Oh, yeah. It's a complicated question. But I think the short answer is, you need a whole schwack o' beginners to get one sensei. Our club has seen at least 600, may be closer to 800 people start over the years. Out of that, 3 people have passed yondan. So that's at least a 200:1 ratio, and the pass rate for sandan and lower is 100%, by which I mean everyone passes those eventually so long as they keep trying.

[Curtis]

Oh, yeah. It's a complicated question. But I think the short answer is, you need a whole schwack o' beginners to get one sensei. Our club has seen at least 600, may be closer to 800 people start over the years. Out of that, 3 people have passed yondan. So that's at least a 200:1 ratio, and the pass rate for sandan and lower is 100%, by which I mean everyone passes those eventually so long as they keep trying.


Yeah, if you start adding in all the 'others', we're talking about 6 and 7 figures to get an 8 dan. I looked at my rosters from class and I have gone through hundreds.