A Lot of Candidates for 8 Dan

[Curtis]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

[Andou]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

...Wow. 87,000 people huh? I wonder how large a place that the testing would be held in would be.

[xvikingx]

I wonder how large a place that the testing would be held in would be.

Not very big at all. It's being held today and tomorrow in Kyoto.

[ZtefaNNN[K]]

wasn´t it tokyo/kyoto ?

[Kenzan]

I'm looking forward to my promotion to Hachidan.
(In several lifetimes from now.)


Say, didn't Kendoka_Han list himself somewhere as a "Senior Kendo Master"?
I guess that'd be Hachidan rank then.
Wow...Hachidan at 15.
Damn, he must be wicked awesome at Kendo!.

[Big One]

With the percentage of passing for Hachidan, I came up the number of
76,923 godan to become Rokkudan. Sadly, I think that number is bigger all U.S. Kendoka that include many many Kyu grade.

[Shazzanzzz]

With the percentage of passing for Hachidan, I came up the number of
76,923 godan to become Rokkudan. Sadly, I think that number is bigger all U.S. Kendoka that include many many Kyu grade.

It takes 7.69 godans on average to test to get 1 6-dan.

[ZtefaNNN[K]]

then he knows whee the examination was held.

[Shazzanzzz]

I think the actual rate of hachidan passing is less than 1%. I think over 1200 applied and only 8 got it one year I saw the numbers for.

Which means.... if you're a rokudan, you have less than a 0.1% statistical chance of making it to hachidan... And if you're a godan... the number becomes 0.013%... Of course, a more accurate number would be from those who tested and eventually got the dan degrees.

But, just for fun, if we consider the number of hachidans in this world and population of earth... which is what <100 compared to around 6.5 billion.... A normal human being have a better statistical chance of winning the lottery than becoming a hachidan, haha.

[Curtis]

I think the actual rate of hachidan passing is less than 1%. I think over 1200 applied and only 8 got it one year I saw the numbers for.

Which means.... if you're a rokudan, you have less than a 0.1% statistical chance of making it to hachidan... And if you're a godan... the number becomes 0.013%... Of course, a more accurate number would be from those who tested and eventually got the dan degrees.

But, just for fun, if we consider the number of hachidans in this world and population of earth... which is what <100 compared to around 6.5 billion.... A normal human being have a better statistical chance of winning the lottery than becoming a hachidan, haha.

These are average percentages based on several tests I have read about or attended in Japan. 8 dan generally runs from .08 to 1.2%. 7 dan runs a pretty close range of 9-11%.

I would imagine at this time there are between 400-500 8 dan in Japan. You pass some, you lose some.

[Neil Gendzwill]

I think the pass rates are a little higher in North America.

[jmarsten]

I think the pass rates are a little higher in North America.

Actually in the US they are probably less. It is hard to say because the testing is such a small sample.
This last test, 2 of 18 passed 5 Dan, 2 of 6 passed 6 Dan and 2 of 6 passed 7 Dan. However the test in April none passed 6 or 7 and the passes this time in November for 6 and 7 had multiple tests before success. One of the 7 Dan has tested at least 10 or more times both in US and Japan. Same with one of the 6th Dan that passed, he also had multiple tests in both US and Japan.
If I remember remotely correctly on the test before this past one in November the pass for 5th Dan was 4 of 24 or somewhere in that area. So the pass ratio is actually less than Japan on 5th and 6th. 7th is a completely different situation because the pool is so irregular. Worst case I can remember was two candidates. One was about 39 and the other 75 or so. Makes it very difficult for either to do well.

[Sparv]

On the former internet site of my dojo there were a page with an estimation of the total number of kendo practitionners in Japan which used the numbers of candidates to 6th, 7th and 8th dan. The result was far from the official figures... Around 800,000 instead of more than 2,000,000 (I'll try to find this page, the site has changed and this interresting part is no longer online).

[hyuna]

Do you have any information about the average number of attempts before a pass, and drop-out rates?

[ben]

Another statistic that reveals the bigness and busy-ness of Japanese kendo is one that Nakata sensei gave us during the last Asian Zone Shinpan Seminar. He asked how many people shinpan in more than five comps per year. No-one put their hand up because we don't have that many in Aus. He was surprised and said that when he was his busiest at shinpaning, he was personally shinpaning 2000 matches per year! That's 40 every week!

No wonder we're behind in shinpan skills as well...

b