A Lot of Candidates for 8 Dan

[Ralutin]

And what would the odds be of more than one nanadan from US passing hachidan at the same test?

Or don't we want to go there?

I'll stick my foot out...

Actually, I think the odds are good that we'll have another 7 dan from here in the U.S. pass 8 dan in Japan within the next ten years. I know of at least three or four who have been attempting the test over the last few years and they're still young enough to keep trying for many years to come.

We all know Tagawa sensei did it a couple of years ago - Miyahara sensei and Miyata sensei before him - I suppose you can count Huang sensei too, since he's here in the U.S.

Anybody wanna guess who'll be next from the U.S.? Who wants to start taking bets?

[Ignatz]

I'll stick my foot out...

Actually, I think the odds are good that we'll have another 7 dan from here in the U.S. pass 8 dan in Japan within the next ten years. I know of at least three or four who have been attempting the test over the last few years and they're still young enough to keep trying for many years to come.

We all know Tagawa sensei did it a couple of years ago - Miyahara sensei and Miyata sensei before him - I suppose you can count Huang sensei too, since he's here in the U.S.

Anybody wanna guess who'll be next from the U.S.? Who wants to start taking bets?

That's not what I was asking.

[Alison2805]

Another statistic that reveals the bigness and busy-ness of Japanese kendo is one that Nakata sensei gave us during the last Asian Zone Shinpan Seminar. He asked how many people shinpan in more than five comps per year. No-one put their hand up because we don't have that many in Aus. He was surprised and said that when he was his busiest at shinpaning, he was personally shinpaning 2000 matches per year! That's 40 every week!

No wonder we're behind in shinpan skills as well...

b

No wonder our AFL umpires are so crap! They dont umpire enough!!!

[Curtis]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

It was pointed out to me that I have a slight error. I added an extra 10,000 which would not be the case.

The number should be 76,920. That is what happens when you are in a hurry and do not fully proof out your formulas.

It would be interesting to know about the retests and the average number of tries it takes people. I have an acquaintance that passed 7 dan last year in Tokyo on his 7th or 8th try. I know others who have tried repeatedly.

[Kingofmyrrh]

And what would the odds be of more than one nanadan from US passing hachidan at the same test?

Or don't we want to go there?

Until you're entering well over 100 candidates per year and still not getting the occasional double pass, it's a little early to get cynical, don't you think?

[Ignatz]

Until you're entering well over 100 candidates per year and still not getting the occasional double pass, it's a little early to get cynical, don't you think?

I've been cynical for at least 35 years (maybe more)

[xvikingx]

I wonder how large a place that the testing would be held in would be.

Not very big at all. It's being held today and tomorrow in Kyoto.

[Oroshi]

The iaido hachidan gradings are being held on 3 May in Kyoto too. I have no idea what the pass rate is for those but I know that like kendo it's very low.

[Shazzanzzz]

I'll stick my foot out...

Actually, I think the odds are good that we'll have another 7 dan from here in the U.S. pass 8 dan in Japan within the next ten years. I know of at least three or four who have been attempting the test over the last few years and they're still young enough to keep trying for many years to come.

We all know Tagawa sensei did it a couple of years ago - Miyahara sensei and Miyata sensei before him - I suppose you can count Huang sensei too, since he's here in the U.S.

Anybody wanna guess who'll be next from the U.S.? Who wants to start taking bets?

My bet is Kato Sensei from Shidogaikuin in the east coast. He's the most accomplished nanadan that i know of.... Past US team coach, WKC judge, etc... and still in his 50's. Maybe Kato sensei'll be able to get hachidan in iaido too.

[mark]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

I think another interesting way of looking at the issue would be to follow the cohorts over time. It would be fairly easy to estimate when we will likely have 10 hachidan, 15 hachidan.....

To do the calculations I would need rough estimates on the number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th currently in the system and rough estimates of the pass rates and quit/mortality rate.

So far we have the following:

dan number pass rate mortality
with grade to next grade
8 ? NA ?
7 ? 1% ?
6 ? 10% ?
5 ? 13% ?
4 ? ? ?
3 ? ? ?
2 ? ? ?
1 ? ? ?

[Kendoka_Han]

[FONT=Arial]

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

Why do you times 10 into 7,692 and 1000?

I am somewhat slightly confused.

Oh and yeh, i am a Hachidan, no wait...im 0-Dan....meaning i will never need a dan grade cause im just too uberly awesome.

[mark]

Why do you times 10 into 7,692 and 1000?

I am somewhat slightly confused.

Oh and yeh, i am a Hachidan, no wait...im 0-Dan....meaning i will never need a dan grade cause im just too uberly awesome.

The calculation produces 1 candidate. He wants to produce 10 candidates so he multiplies by 10.

[mark]

I think another interesting way of looking at the issue would be to follow the cohorts over time. It would be fairly easy to estimate when we will likely have 10 hachidan, 15 hachidan.....

To do the calculations I would need rough estimates on the number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th currently in the system and rough estimates of the pass rates and quit/mortality rate.

So far we have the following:

dan number pass rate mortality
with grade to next grade
8 ? NA ?
7 ? 1% ?
6 ? 10% ?
5 ? 13% ?
4 ? ? ?
3 ? ? ?
2 ? ? ?
1 ? ? ?

Sorry ran out of edit time the table reads

dan number with grade pass rate mortality to nxt grade

8 ................?......................NA......... ..............?
7 .................?......................1%........ ..............?
6 .................?......................10%....... ..............?
5 .................?......................13%....... ..............?
4..................?.......................?...... ..................?
3 ..................?.......................?....... .................?
2 ..................?.......................?....... .................?
1..................?.......................?...... ..................?

[Kendoka_Han]

The calculation produces 1 candidate. He wants to produce 10 candidates so he multiplies by 10.

So would there be 7,692 for 1 hachidan if it were just 1 candidate?

Did he put 10 for a theoretical output or was it 10 candidates for real?

Still confused

[mark]

So would there be 7,692 for 1 hachidan if it were just 1 candidate?

Did he put 10 for a theoretical output or was it 10 candidates for real?

Still confused

Yep! He calculated that it takes 7,692 candidates to produce 1 hachidan.

The initial question was "How many candidates does it take to create 10 hachidan". That is why he multiplied the number of candidates it takes to make 1 hachidan by 10.