A Lot of Candidates for 8 Dan

[Sparv]

His figures are all right, I'll esplain it in another way:
X -> 6 13%
6-> 7 10%
7-> 8 1%

so X-> 8 0,013 %
10/0,00013 -> around 76920

That means that we need 76920 beginners to find (a lot of years later) 10 8th dan.
You said in another thread that you have been selected to become combat pilot. But you are not so good in maths (which are quite important to be a pilot): I found the calculs not very clear but understandable.

[mark]

That means that we need 76920 beginners to find (a lot of years later) 10 8th dan.

Not quite

76920 5th dan to make one 8th dan. And how many beginners to make a 5th dan?

[mark]

[FONT=Arial]After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan.II find these numbers quite incredible.

It is not only surprising but I also find that it is also quite important.
You recently produced a video to help dojo's who do not have a sensei (sattelite dojo) improve their teaching. If the estimates show that most cities will not have sensei for the forseable future similar programs will become extremely important if kendo is to growth and get national coverage.

[Sparv]

Not quite

That's what happened when somebody try the cook-and-post-and-think-to something-else waza... I had understood 5th dan, but I wrote beginner.

[Neil Gendzwill]

And how many beginners to make a 5th dan?

Lessee... our club has been active for 26 years now and we've produced one, not counting sensei who founded the club at yondan and passed godan some time later. In another 3 or 4 years we should have a second. That's by my guess around 1200 beginners to produce 2 godan over 30 years.

For godan it's not so much pass percentages as finding someone who sticks around. Any averagely talented person can pass godan IMO if they put in the time and effort.

[Andou]

Lessee... our club has been active for 26 years now and we've produced one, not counting sensei who founded the club at yondan and passed godan some time later. In another 3 or 4 years we should have a second. That's by my guess around 1200 beginners to produce 2 godan over 30 years.

For godan it's not so much pass percentages as finding someone who sticks around. Any averagely talented person can pass godan IMO if they put in the time and effort.

Stick around, I understand. But maybe in Japan they have to stick around for less time because of the period between shinsa? (Or I guess it doesn't really matter if you still have to wait x amount of years before your eligible to be promoted again...)

How many chances of gradings do you all usually get a year (including the ones you're not eligible to take due to insufficient amounts of time in your current rank)?

[Neil Gendzwill]

How many chances of gradings do you all usually get a year (including the ones you're not eligible to take due to insufficient amounts of time in your current rank)?

There are gradings in Vancouver and Toronto, but they are a week apart at the end of November so nobody would try at both in the same year. There's now a spring grading in Vancouver but that's only for ikkyu/shodan, I think. There's a grading here in Saskatoon in March, so I guess if people failed they could try again in Vancouver or vice-versa, but nobody does. If you fail a dan, it's not usually something you can fix in less than a year anyways.

[jmarsten]

I think the pass rates are a little higher in North America.

Actually in the US they are probably less. It is hard to say because the testing is such a small sample.
This last test, 2 of 18 passed 5 Dan, 2 of 6 passed 6 Dan and 2 of 6 passed 7 Dan. However the test in April none passed 6 or 7 and the passes this time in November for 6 and 7 had multiple tests before success. One of the 7 Dan has tested at least 10 or more times both in US and Japan. Same with one of the 6th Dan that passed, he also had multiple tests in both US and Japan.
If I remember remotely correctly on the test before this past one in November the pass for 5th Dan was 4 of 24 or somewhere in that area. So the pass ratio is actually less than Japan on 5th and 6th. 7th is a completely different situation because the pool is so irregular. Worst case I can remember was two candidates. One was about 39 and the other 75 or so. Makes it very difficult for either to do well.

[Andou]

There are gradings in Vancouver and Toronto, but they are a week apart at the end of November so nobody would try at both in the same year. There's now a spring grading in Vancouver but that's only for ikkyu/shodan, I think. There's a grading here in Saskatoon in March, so I guess if people failed they could try again in Vancouver or vice-versa, but nobody does. If you fail a dan, it's not usually something you can fix in less than a year anyways.

Hmmm. I seem to remember my dad talking about the "Shodan Shikkai" (sp?) in which the only people who even attended were ikkyus ready to be tested. Is that just because there are more people training in Japan in general...? How many people attend the Vancouver ikkyu/shodan testing up there?

[Neil Gendzwill]

How many people attend the Vancouver ikkyu/shodan testing up there?

I haven't been to the spring one. In the fall there's usually around 50 candidates between ikkyu and shodan. At our grading in Saskatoon there's usually 20-30 candidates between all ranks (we only do up to sandan).

[mark]

I haven't been to the spring one. In the fall there's usually around 50 candidates between ikkyu and shodan. At our grading in Saskatoon there's usually 20-30 candidates between all ranks (we only do up to sandan).

It is about the same in eastern Canada (Toronto 60 in the fall, 20 in the spring in Quebec city (up to sandan)).

[j.noh]

Koike sensei is testing as well from NW Dojo. Past Team USA coach and advanced to the second round last time he tested. I'm rooting for him to pass this time.

[Curtis]

The reason I used a figure of 10 is because that seems to be the average for most tests. I have seen a range of 6 to 15 passing. Candidates can range from around 1000 to 1500 at any given test for 8 dan.

So if you need 76,920 just to make it to 5 dan, think of the huge number you need just to get to there.

Watching the the test is an amazing thing to see as they run 100's through the test. 8 courts running for the most part nonstop.

[Masahiro]

as far as i know, passing the hachidan test (which is now dubbed "kendo's most grueling challenge) is not just about competence with a sword, i want to say in a sense it's also about if one has paied their dues, such as given back to the community of kendo and that in itself i think is the greatest challenge of all. To have learned something, (much like acquiring money, or materialistic goods) and to give it all back someday. ..passing on the knowledge. Although i wonder, if the younger candidates (say between 43 and 55) have a better rate/shot/chance at passing than the older candidates. Age does pose a hinderance i think, at least on physical ability.

[mark]

as far as i know, passing the hachidan test (which is now dubbed "kendo's most grueling challenge) is not just about competence with a sword, i want to say in a sense it's also about if one has paied their dues, such as given back to the community of kendo and that in itself i think is the greatest challenge of all. To have learned something, (much like acquiring money, or materialistic goods) and to give it all back someday. ..passing on the knowledge. Although i wonder, if the younger candidates (say between 43 and 55) have a better rate/shot/chance at passing than the older candidates. Age does pose a hinderance i think, at least on physical ability.

I suspect you don't have to guess and that they have the stats on the average age of those that pass, the number of times they tried and so on and so forth.