A Lot of Candidates for 8 Dan

[Curtis]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

[Andou]

After practice at Dallas-Fort Worth the other night at the second dojo we were discussing the number of candidates it takes for there to be 10 new 8 Dan. Most were very surprised by the number of people it takes to pass 6 and 7 Dan so you can have 10 new 8 Dan.

My numbers were somewhat off as I scribbled them on a napkin. But based on maybe generous percentages they are as I figured them now.

7,692 people testing for 6 Dan with a 13% pass ratio to create 1000 new 6 Dan.
7,692 x .13=1,000

10,000 people testing for 7 Dan with a 10% pass ratio to create 1000 new 7 Dan.
1,000 x .10=100 x 10=1,000

1000 people testing for 8 Dan with a 1% pass ratio to create 10 new 8 Dan.

10 x 7,692=76,920
10 x 1,000=10,000
86,920 people for 10 hachidan.

I find these numbers quite incredible. Of course as we know many will be repeat candidates. Still it does not change the number of candidates an examiner must look at.

...Wow. 87,000 people huh? I wonder how large a place that the testing would be held in would be.

[ZtefaNNN[K]]

wasn´t it tokyo/kyoto ?

[Kenzan]

I'm looking forward to my promotion to Hachidan.
(In several lifetimes from now.)


Say, didn't Kendoka_Han list himself somewhere as a "Senior Kendo Master"?
I guess that'd be Hachidan rank then.
Wow...Hachidan at 15.
Damn, he must be wicked awesome at Kendo!.

[ZtefaNNN[K]]

then he knows whee the examination was held.

[Big One]

With the percentage of passing for Hachidan, I came up the number of
76,923 godan to become Rokkudan. Sadly, I think that number is bigger all U.S. Kendoka that include many many Kyu grade.

[Shazzanzzz]

I think the actual rate of hachidan passing is less than 1%. I think over 1200 applied and only 8 got it one year I saw the numbers for.

Which means.... if you're a rokudan, you have less than a 0.1% statistical chance of making it to hachidan... And if you're a godan... the number becomes 0.013%... Of course, a more accurate number would be from those who tested and eventually got the dan degrees.

But, just for fun, if we consider the number of hachidans in this world and population of earth... which is what <100 compared to around 6.5 billion.... A normal human being have a better statistical chance of winning the lottery than becoming a hachidan, haha.

[Shazzanzzz]

With the percentage of passing for Hachidan, I came up the number of
76,923 godan to become Rokkudan. Sadly, I think that number is bigger all U.S. Kendoka that include many many Kyu grade.

It takes 7.69 godans on average to test to get 1 6-dan.

[Neil Gendzwill]

I think the pass rates are a little higher in North America.

[Sparv]

On the former internet site of my dojo there were a page with an estimation of the total number of kendo practitionners in Japan which used the numbers of candidates to 6th, 7th and 8th dan. The result was far from the official figures... Around 800,000 instead of more than 2,000,000 (I'll try to find this page, the site has changed and this interresting part is no longer online).

[Curtis]

I think the actual rate of hachidan passing is less than 1%. I think over 1200 applied and only 8 got it one year I saw the numbers for.

Which means.... if you're a rokudan, you have less than a 0.1% statistical chance of making it to hachidan... And if you're a godan... the number becomes 0.013%... Of course, a more accurate number would be from those who tested and eventually got the dan degrees.

But, just for fun, if we consider the number of hachidans in this world and population of earth... which is what <100 compared to around 6.5 billion.... A normal human being have a better statistical chance of winning the lottery than becoming a hachidan, haha.

These are average percentages based on several tests I have read about or attended in Japan. 8 dan generally runs from .08 to 1.2%. 7 dan runs a pretty close range of 9-11%.

I would imagine at this time there are between 400-500 8 dan in Japan. You pass some, you lose some.

[hyuna]

Do you have any information about the average number of attempts before a pass, and drop-out rates?

[ben]

Another statistic that reveals the bigness and busy-ness of Japanese kendo is one that Nakata sensei gave us during the last Asian Zone Shinpan Seminar. He asked how many people shinpan in more than five comps per year. No-one put their hand up because we don't have that many in Aus. He was surprised and said that when he was his busiest at shinpaning, he was personally shinpaning 2000 matches per year! That's 40 every week!

No wonder we're behind in shinpan skills as well...

b

[Ignatz]

And what would the odds be of more than one nanadan from US passing hachidan at the same test?

Or don't we want to go there?

[Kenzan]

Ouch.